Thursday, October 26, 2006

Tiring Day

Some of the stress is burning off while more builds up with the BE300 exam heading up on Friday. Attended 2 workshops today and also Lehman Brothers presentation on campus. i like Lehman Brothers quite alot.

Anyways, I'm tired out. Grabbed a late dinner before Saigon Garden closed, semi-decent Vietnamese beef noodles. I think I like the noodles there because it's soup and probably more because I can put a ton of chilli while I'm at it.

Oh well, my entertainment for the day: picking some stock ideas for tomorrow. Disclaimer: I didn't put much effort into screening these stocks. Just quick picks off the daily losers and a quick glance at their ratios and news. What I'm saying is don't come crying if you lose money. Buy me coffee if you make some.

Possible long for tomorrow:
Lumera Corporation (LMRA)
Osiris Therapeutics Incorporated (OSIR)
FibreTower Corporation (FTWR)
BTU International Incorporated (BTUI) *
Saia Incorporated (SAIA) *

As you've noticed, all from the NASDAQ since they're generally the more volatile stocks. Read: dangerous, high risk, high gains. SAIA and BTUI are more worth more of a second look than the other three stocks. Both of them dropped beneath their lower bollinger band.

Words of caution: Bollinger bands should technically not be used to judge whether a stock price should go up or down just because the price has hit the upper or lower bands. However, since that is a common misconception, you can almost bet that traders would make that assumption and cause the price to rebound anyways. Its really a gamble at best. Also, MACD indicates sell rather than buy since their MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) has crossed downwards through their signal line. BUT then again, MFI (and if you must, RSI too) suggests that BTUI has been oversold. MFI and RSI for SAIA are not really indicative at a neutral 50. (or probably because I lack the knowledge to interpret this data. Will look that up when I have more time.)

An interesting point to note: Google (GOOG) has shot way past their top band (trend reversal supposed to happen?), has hit a RSI of almost 90 (way overbought), MFI a little more forgiving at approximately 60, a MACD that has shot way above the signal line. What I'm saying is, the stock is nuts. Made me a ton of virtual cash (a 30 dollar jump always does wonders for your portfolio) but I don't know how sustainable is this phenomenal growth. Don't get me wrong. I love Google and all the crazy shit they're throwing up. Just don't know when their stock is going to tank.

In my opinion, better ideas:

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) -- strong fundamentals, expansion on China, price hike in Japan, investing in emerging markets such as India, looking at massive expansion in their current markets, which I believe might actually work given the absolutely ridiculous prices Americans are willing to shell out for a cup of Starbucks coffeee. (darn I'm one of those idiots too at times). One thing that bugs me is their (also ridiculously) high P/E but that can also be seen as a sign of strength or growth by some. Depends on how you study P/Es I guess.

Marriott International Incorporated (MAR) -- As mentioned previously (did I?), strong profits, expected 15% to 25% growth in profits through 2009, looking to increase number of hotel rooms, buying back 40 million shares, continuing to grow locally and internationally. I like the fact that they're truly international, might not that hard hit even if tourism winds down for some time in a specific region. Strong P/Es, debt to equity, ROE, ROA. Might want to look more in-depth into their financials if you're interested.

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